Public Policy Modelling and Evaluation

Policy Impact Modelling Techniques

• Model outputs, outcomes, and distributional effects of policy.
• Estimate costs and benefits for stakeholders over time.
• Account for deadweight, displacement, and attribution.
• Define monitoring indicators to track realised impact.

Evaluation Methods and Cost‑Benefit Analysis

• Apply cost‑benefit and cost‑effectiveness frameworks rigorously.
• Value non‑market impacts using accepted estimation methods.
• Include uncertainty using sensitivity and scenario analysis.
• Draft evidence‑led recommendations for policymakers.

Excel Best Practices for Financial Modelling

• Structure models with separate inputs, calculations, and outputs to improve auditability.
• Use consistent naming conventions, dynamic ranges, and version control to reduce errors.
• Implement checksums and reconciliation flags to validate calculations end‑to‑end.
• Document assumptions, sources, and logic to support review, handover, and maintenance.

Ensuring Data Integrity and Model Accuracy

• Design robust data import and transformation steps with traceable lineage.
• Apply validation tests (type, range, and logic checks) to catch anomalies early.
• Minimise hard‑coding; build driver‑based links that prevent circularity and drift.
• Create error‑handling and exception logs that surface issues for timely fixes.

Communicating Financial Insights Effectively

• Translate model outputs into clear narratives that answer the ‘so what?’.
• Use charts, bridges, and scenarios to highlight drivers, risks, and options.
• Present concise recommendations with quantified impacts and sensitivities.
• Package model files and executive packs for efficient decision meetings.