Economic Modelling for Policy and Business Planning

Macroeconomic Assumptions and Linkages

• Translate GDP, inflation, and rate outlooks into model drivers.
• Link macro factors to sector demand and input costs.
• Stress‑test policies against shocks and structural shifts.
• Present macro‑to‑micro pathways that explain results.

Microeconomic and Sector Dynamics

• Model supply‑demand curves and price elasticity effects.
• Incorporate competition, capacity, and market share movements.
• Quantify welfare or profitability impacts under policy changes.
• Calibrate parameters with credible data and citations.

Excel Best Practices for Financial Modelling

• Structure models with separate inputs, calculations, and outputs to improve auditability.
• Use consistent naming conventions, dynamic ranges, and version control to reduce errors.
• Implement checksums and reconciliation flags to validate calculations end‑to‑end.
• Document assumptions, sources, and logic to support review, handover, and maintenance.

Ensuring Data Integrity and Model Accuracy

• Design robust data import and transformation steps with traceable lineage.
• Apply validation tests (type, range, and logic checks) to catch anomalies early.
• Minimise hard‑coding; build driver‑based links that prevent circularity and drift.
• Create error‑handling and exception logs that surface issues for timely fixes.

Communicating Financial Insights Effectively

• Translate model outputs into clear narratives that answer the ‘so what?’.
• Use charts, bridges, and scenarios to highlight drivers, risks, and options.
• Present concise recommendations with quantified impacts and sensitivities.
• Package model files and executive packs for efficient decision meetings.